Florida’s results on the 2022 NAEP math assessments and the state’s SAT results paint a frustrating picture

The results of the 2022 NAEP reading and math assessments were released today, and the news was awful for Florida’s pipeline leading to bachelor’s degree-level STEM careers. Only 23% of the state’s 8th graders tested were “proficient” or “advanced” in math, a rate that ranks 34th in the nation. In 2019, 31% of Florida’s 8th graders were proficient or advanced – that is, the rate of math proficiency among the state’s 8th graders declined by one-quarter.

Of course, the math results were awful nationally, with nearly every state experiencing a decline in math proficiency in 8th grade prompted at least in part by the pandemic. Only Utah didn’t experience a significant decline.

The reading proficiency rate for Florida’s 8th graders declined as well, dropping from 34% in 2019 to 29% this year. But that wasn’t nearly as dramatic as the decline in math proficiency.

Florida continued to be a national leader in NAEP math performance at the 4th grade level with a 41% proficiency rate, but that simply doesn’t matter. Whatever advantage the state’s 4th graders have, it fades out by 8th grade.

In fact, what our students can do in 8th grade is really only important in that it sets students up for learning in high school. Which raises the question: How are Florida’s high school graduates doing in math? The best place to look for that is on the math section of the SAT, which was taken by 81% of the state’s high school graduating class of 2022. According to the College Board (which owns the SAT), only 31% of the members of Florida’s 2022 graduating class who took the SAT earned a math score that was high enough to be designated “college and career ready” (which is 530).

Fortunately, Florida’s decline in college and career readiness on the math SAT wasn’t nearly as dramatic from 2019 to 2022 as the 8th grade NAEP math decline was. In 2019, 34% of the members of the Florida high school graduating class who took the SAT (and nearly all did) were college and career ready, compared to 31% this year.

Context is important, particularly for the SAT scores. SAT-taking rates vary dramatically from state to state, and it only makes sense to compare Florida to other states with high SAT-taking rates. Besides Florida, there are ten jurisdictions in which more than 80% of the high school graduating class of 2022 took the SAT – Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Idaho, Illinois, Michigan, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and West Virginia. The percentages of SAT-takers in those states who earned the college and career ready score of 530 is shown here.

Among the eleven jurisdictions, Florida is ranked 8th in SAT math college and career readiness. But a look at today’s 4th grade NAEP math results is striking. Instead of 8th, Florida is 1st.

So what happens to kids in Florida between 4th grade and high school graduation? Whatever it is, it happens by 8th grade, as this plot of the 8th grade NAEP math results shows.

So what should be done about this?

First of all, Florida’s education leaders must decide whether they care about the state being this poor at producing high school graduates (and 8th graders) who are proficient at math. Maybe only reading matters. After all, Florida is the “Just Read!” state. Or maybe doing math at the 4th grade level is good enough. But policy-makers should be careful here – even to earn an A.S. degree from Tallahassee Community College in cybersecurity requires a student to pass one of the Mathematics State Core courses, the lowest level of which is “Mathematics I for Liberal Arts”. That is, the success of Florida’s Career and Technical Education program – which is a headline program for the state – depends on students in the middle of the population being serviceable in math.

If the state’s leaders do indeed decide that learning math is important for Florida’s students, then there is only one course of action. Improving math instruction in Florida must become the state’s highest educational priority. There are things that the state can do to nibble around the edges of this challenge. One commentator suggested today that Florida should start a micro-grant program for tutoring in math similar to the existing program for tutoring in reading. But to dramatically improve mathematics instruction in Florida will require a new commitment to building a teaching corps. That means making salaries for experienced teachers in the public schools as attractive as starting salaries now are. And that will require considerable new state support for teacher salaries.

The 2023 session of the Florida Legislature will tell us a great deal about whether the state’s leaders think learning math is important for the state’s students. The challenge is clear. Now we await the answer.